A whole new level of dominance was reached by Max Verstappen in Formula 1. Had he not returned during the summer vacation, he would have still prevailed in the competition by a single point.
That’s why it’s simple to undervalue the caliber of the work he’s completed so far this year, especially considering Red Bull was still going strong when 2024 got underway. He hasn’t stopped winning, even as the threat posed by his opponents has increased. He now has an 84-point lead as a result of that. If the current trend of development this year continues, that might become very significant in the second part of the season. Red Bull now faces serious threats from Mercedes as well as McLaren, as demonstrated during the British Grand Prix. Given that F1’s Aerodynamic Testing Rules allow those two teams to do more development, and not to mention
Verstappen will be thankful for the 84 points he now has in hand—more than three grand prix victories—should the second half of the championship proceed in that manner. In addition, he will be relieved that no driver has yet emerged as a clear favorite from the pursuing group—Verstappen has seven victories, while the other five have one apiece. Verstappen should win his fourth title if he continues to finish in the type of high-scoring positions the RB20 can produce. His retirement at the Australian Grand Prix aside, it’s typically safe to say that F1 cars these days are dependable. Verstappen’s potential to waste points in unnecessary incidents is therefore the biggest danger to his championship. He did not act.
But now Verstappen’s competitors have a different calculation. This year, three of Red Bull’s competitors are aware that they have the ability to win races. Some people don’t realize how self-control Verstappen has. Following his collision with Lando Norris at the Austrian Grand Prix, a plethora of opinion pieces criticized him patronizingly for his perceived lack of maturity. Verstappen, though, has demonstrated that he is more astute in determining how much to risk in wheel-to-wheel racing. He considers a number of things. Does he have a chance to hold onto his position, or is he in the incorrect place for a “slam dunk” helped by DRS? Is this a sprint to the finish line for his final stint, or may he regain the position later? Is he going up against a championship opponent or a midfielder?
Based on the last few races, he may have to make those assessment more often over the coming months. And he has been willing to stay his hand when it suits him. Just a week after provoking contact with Norris in Austria, Verstappen let him go. “I think the overspeed of the McLaren was so big that he could have gone either side,” Red Bull team principal Christian Horner noted afterwards.
In the upcoming months, he could need to make those assessments more frequently given the results of the previous races. And when it’s convenient for him, he’s been prepared to hold back. Verstappen let Norris leave after only one week of inciting touch with him in Austria. “I believe the McLaren’s overspeed was so significant that he could have gone in either direction,” Red Bull team principal Christian Horner remarked after the fact. With a title at stake against a rival who is currently well out of it, Lewis Hamilton’s speed over the last stint prevented us from getting a potentially fascinating look at how much Verstappen is ready to risk. Hamilton undoubtedly had every motive to battle valiantly for his maiden victory.
Since the championship spans 24 weekends and more than just grand prix finishing positions are included, an 84-point lead may not appear as substantial as it once did. Up to 336 spots are still available. A fast dwindling championship lead is the biggest pressure cooker, as other drivers have discovered. Remember, in the middle of 2000, Mika Hakkinen virtually erased Michael Schumacher’s lead of about two and a half wins over just three races? Or the way that, fifteen years ago, Sebastian Vettel gradually cut into Jenson Button’s advantage, winning more than three races in a row. Verstappen has a very slim probability of losing this title. Though much will depend on it, it is far from the finalized agreement of a year ago.